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What will be the outcome of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukrainian forces successfully hold territory • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian forces • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Ukraine Launches Major Incursion into Russia's Kursk Region, Russia Declares Counter-Terrorism Regime
Aug 9, 2024, 10:06 PM
Ukrainian forces have launched a significant cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk region, marking one of the largest such offensives by Kyiv during the ongoing conflict. The incursion, which has reached 10 kilometers into Russian territory, has prompted Moscow to call in reserves and declare a counter-terrorism regime in the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions. This regime, akin to martial law, reflects the seriousness of the situation as Ukrainian troops continue to advance, taking control of 430 square kilometers of Russian territory over four days. The offensive, which began as a surprise attack on the world's biggest nuclear power, has seen Russian forces battling Ukrainian troops for a third day. In response, Russia has moved additional tanks, artillery, and rocket systems to the southern Kursk region to counter the Ukrainian advance.
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Ukrainian forces maintain control • 25%
Russian forces reclaim control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine maintains control over parts of Kursk • 25%
Russia regains full control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine maintains control • 25%
Russia retakes all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Mutual withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate/No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian forces withdraw completely • 25%
Ukrainian forces maintain current positions • 25%
Ukrainian forces advance further • 25%
Ukrainian forces are repelled further into Ukraine • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful for Ukraine • 25%
Successful for Russia • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels the offensive • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant Ukrainian territorial gain • 25%
Significant Russian counteroffensive • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%