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How will Iran's nuclear policy change by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or credible international agencies
Story
Sullivan Warns Weakened Iran May Seek Nuclear Weapon; Trump Proposes Talks via Oman
Dec 22, 2024, 05:48 PM
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has expressed concern that Iran may seek to develop a nuclear weapon following recent setbacks that have weakened its conventional capabilities, including Israeli attacks. Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that "it's no wonder there are voices in Iran saying, 'Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now... maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine.'" He emphasized that there is a "real risk" that Iran may change its longstanding position of not pursuing nuclear weapons. The Biden administration is briefing President-elect Donald Trump's team on the potential threat, highlighting the urgency of the situation. Meanwhile, reports from Baghdad Alyoum indicate that Trump has sent messages via Oman to Iran proposing negotiations on several issues, including Iran's nuclear program. Trump is reportedly willing to reach an agreement but may only wait a few months for a response. Sullivan expressed hope that Trump would use this opportunity to reach an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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Increase in nuclear activities • 25%
Decrease in nuclear activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Nuclear disarmament • 25%
Iran halts nuclear program • 25%
Iran accelerates nuclear program • 25%
Iran maintains current pace • 25%
Iran withdraws from NPT • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Policy Hardening • 25%
Policy Softening • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy explicitly altered • 25%
Increased nuclear enrichment • 25%
Nuclear weapon development initiated • 25%
Expansion of nuclear program • 25%
Reduction of nuclear activities • 25%
No change • 25%
Full nuclear disarmament • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
Accelerate nuclear program • 25%
Halt nuclear program • 25%
No change • 25%
Seek international support for nuclear development • 25%
Iran completes enrichment plans • 25%
Iran halts enrichment • 25%
Iran scales back enrichment • 25%
No significant change • 25%
