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What change will occur in NATO's policy towards Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New strategic direction • 25%
Official NATO policy statements or international news reports
Story
Russia Accuses NATO of Planning to Deploy 100,000 Troops to Ukraine for 'Occupation'
Nov 29, 2024, 06:46 AM
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has accused NATO of planning to deploy up to 100,000 peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, under the guise of a peacekeeping mission. This move is purportedly in preparation for a potential peace deal under a Trump administration. The SVR claims this would be an attempt to 'occupy' Ukraine under the pretext of peacekeeping. Additionally, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has expressed that involving NATO troops in the conflict on Ukrainian territory would not be a wise decision, highlighting the current disadvantageous position of Ukraine in negotiations with Russia. The SVR also mentioned NATO's plans to establish training centers in Ukraine to mobilize nearly a million troops, aiming to restore Ukraine's combat capability for a potential future conflict with Russia.
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NATO increases support for Ukraine • 25%
NATO maintains current support • 25%
NATO decreases support for Ukraine • 25%
No change in NATO's stance • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Maintain current stance • 33%
Increase support for Ukraine • 33%
Decrease support for Ukraine • 33%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued support • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Reduced support • 25%
Withdrawal of support • 25%
US expelled from NATO • 25%
NATO sanctions US • 25%
US policy unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership application pending • 25%
Membership application rejected • 25%
No application • 25%
NATO reaffirms support for Ukraine's membership • 25%
NATO suspends Ukraine's membership process • 25%
NATO offers alternative security arrangements • 25%
No significant change in NATO's stance • 25%
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%