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How will Iran's oil export partners change due to US sanctions by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in exports to China • 25%
Increase in exports to Russia • 25%
Diversification to new partners • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Trade reports and announcements from Iranian government or major importers
Story
Trump Team Aims to 'Bankrupt Iran' with New Sanctions Targeting Oil Exports
Nov 16, 2024, 02:32 PM
According to a report by the Financial Times, Donald Trump's incoming administration plans to reinstate its 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran, aiming to bankrupt Tehran's ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons. Trump's foreign policy team is preparing executive orders, to be signed on his first day in office, which will tighten sanctions on Iran, including vital oil exports. The strategy seeks to reduce Iran's oil exports, currently around 1.5 million barrels per day, and force Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear deal and change its regional policies.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
China • 25%
India • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased exports to new markets • 25%
Reduced exports due to sanctions • 25%
Continued focus on current markets • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Reduction • 25%
Moderate Reduction • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increase • 25%
Sanctions remain unchanged • 25%
Sanctions are lifted • 25%
Sanctions are increased • 25%
Negotiations lead to partial lifting • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased imports from Iran • 25%
Decreased imports from Iran • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Sanctions against U.S. • 25%
Severe recession • 25%
Mild recession • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Economic growth • 25%