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Market
Iran's oil export strategy changes by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased exports to new markets • 25%
Reduced exports due to sanctions • 25%
Continued focus on current markets • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from international energy agencies and trade publications
Story
Iran's Oil Exports Surge to 1.8 Million Barrels Per Day Since 2021 Amid Global Embargo, Utilizing Shadow Banking System
Oct 19, 2024, 11:06 AM
Recent investigations reveal that Iran has been utilizing a sophisticated shadow-banking system to circumvent a global embargo on its oil trade. Documents indicate that front companies linked to this trade have maintained accounts at major banks, including Citibank and HSBC in Hong Kong, as well as China's top four banks. In September 2024, Iran's oil exports averaged 1.7 million barrels per day, a significant increase compared to the second half of 2019. The majority of these exports were directed towards China. This complex infrastructure not only facilitates Iran's oil sales but also poses challenges to Western sanctions efforts, as highlighted by various analyses.
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Similar markets
Increase in exports to China • 25%
Increase in exports to Russia • 25%
Diversification to new partners • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase production • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Decrease production • 25%
Other strategy • 25%
Increase by over 20% • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
Stable (+/- 10%) • 25%
Decrease • 25%
