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Market
How will Hezbollah's military operations change following the death of Ibrahim Aqil by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in operations • 25%
Decrease in operations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israeli Airstrike Kills Senior Hezbollah Commander Ibrahim Aqil, 9 Civilians in Beirut
Sep 20, 2024, 03:00 PM
An Israeli airstrike targeted and killed Ibrahim Aqil, a senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut's southern suburbs. Aqil, head of Hezbollah’s operations division and commander of the elite Radwan Force, was reportedly eliminated along with several other senior Hezbollah members. The strike, confirmed by Israeli officials, aimed at a high-rise residential building where Aqil and other commanders were holding a meeting. Aqil was implicated in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed numerous Americans. The U.S. had placed a $7 million bounty on his head. The incident resulted in 9 civilian deaths and 59 wounded, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Yes, new commander appointed • 33%
Yes, restructuring of leadership • 33%
No change • 33%
New commander appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Major military attack • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
Major military retaliation • 25%
Minor skirmishes or attacks • 25%
Diplomatic or political actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic response • 25%
Increased rhetoric • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased attacks on Israel • 25%
Defensive posture • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Operations • 25%
Decreased Operations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Cease Operations • 25%
Significant decrease in operations • 25%
Moderate decrease in operations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in operations • 25%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Decreased military activity • 25%
No change in military activity • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Immediate successor named • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Hashem Safieddine • 25%
Wafiq Safa • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased attacks • 25%
Decreased attacks • 25%
Shift to diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%