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Market
Control of Scarborough Shoal by end of 2025
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Controlled by China • 33%
Controlled by the Philippines • 33%
Joint administration • 34%
International news reports and official government statements
Story
Philippines-China Tensions Escalate Over Scarborough Shoal, Huangyan Island, 'Cognitive Warfare'
May 21, 2024, 11:08 PM
Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated over disputes in the South China Sea. Recent flashpoints include Chinese fishermen damaging the marine environment at Scarborough Shoal and Chinese ships firing water cannons at Philippine ships. The Philippines has accused China of causing the loss of giant clams in Huangyan Island, prompting calls for an environmental inquiry. The conflict has deepened with fears of 'cognitive warfare' and questions about how far the conflict will escalate.
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Controlled by China • 25%
Controlled by the Philippines • 25%
Jointly managed • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Increased military presence • 33%
Maintained current level • 33%
Reduced military presence • 34%
Controlled by China • 25%
Controlled by Philippines • 25%
Joint management agreement • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
Controlled by Philippines • 33%
Controlled by China • 33%
Joint administration or unresolved • 34%
Condemnation by UN • 33%
Sanctions against China • 33%
No significant international response • 34%
Controlled by China • 33%
Controlled by Philippines • 33%
Joint management • 34%
Philippines Withdraws • 33%
Philippines Maintains Presence • 33%
Conflict Escalates • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%