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Market
Conflict Escalation Between Israel and Gaza by Mid-2025
2
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps•IRGC•Esmail Qaani•Gaza•Israel•Lebanese•Qaani•Resistance Axis•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news agencies and official military statements
Story
IRGC Commander at 1:00 PM Declares Gaza Ceasefire Israel's Greatest Failure After 15 Months of Conflict
Jan 19, 2025, 08:57 AM
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander, Esmail Qaani, announced at 1:00 PM that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza represents the greatest failure for Israel. The announcement, made during a ceremony honoring medical staff who treated Lebanese victims of an explosion, highlighted that the ceasefire was imposed on Israel after 15 months of conflict. Qaani described the event as one of the most significant days in history, emphasizing the resilience of the Resistance Axis. The ceasefire marks the culmination of negotiations that incorporated all demands previously made by Palestinian representatives.
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De-escalation • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
UN sanctions against Israel • 25%
UN sanctions against Hamas • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
