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Will Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region lead to a significant territorial gain by December 31, 2024?
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Ukraine•Western•United States•Storm Shadow missiles•Russian•Russia•Kursk•Kyiv•Ukrainian•Moscow•The Guardian•Independence Day
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified reports from major news agencies like The Guardian, Reuters, and official statements from Ukrainian or Russian governments
Story
Ukraine Urges West to Lift Restrictions on Storm Shadow Missiles Amid Kursk Offensive
Aug 24, 2024, 08:46 PM
Ukraine is urging Western allies, particularly the United States, to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, such as the Storm Shadow missiles, against Russian targets deep within Russia. This request follows Ukraine's recent offensive in the Kursk region, which Kyiv claims demonstrates the possibility of crossing Russia's so-called 'red lines' without significant repercussions. Ukrainian officials believe that enabling these strikes could pressure Moscow into negotiating an end to the conflict. The Guardian reports that Kyiv has asked for a 'demonstration strike' with these missiles. The push for lifting restrictions comes amid Ukraine's Independence Day celebrations and is part of a broader strategy to regain the initiative in the ongoing war.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia repels all attacks • 25%
Stalemate with minor territorial changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ukrainian forces take additional territory • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold current territory • 25%
Russian forces reclaim some territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
0-5 square kilometers • 25%
6-10 square kilometers • 25%
11-15 square kilometers • 25%
More than 15 square kilometers • 25%