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Will total campaign spending in NY-16 Primary exceed $30 million?
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Democratic•New York•16th Congressional District•House•Jamaal Bowman•George Latimer•AIPAC•Israel•Bowman•Republican•Trump•Times Square
Resolution / Starting Odds
Over $30 million • 50%
Under $30 million • 50%
Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign finance disclosures
Story
Record $23M Spent in NY-16 Primary as Bowman Faces AIPAC-Backed Challenge Ahead of June 25th Vote
Jun 20, 2024, 01:42 PM
The Democratic primary in New York’s 16th Congressional District has become the most expensive House primary ever, with a record $23 million spent. Incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman faces a significant challenge from George Latimer, heavily backed by AIPAC and other pro-Israel political groups. AIPAC’s super PAC has allocated $14.5 million to defeat Bowman, who is one of Israel’s most outspoken critics. Bowman has criticized the influence of big money in the race, labeling AIPAC's support for his opponent as 'Republican racist MAGA Trump money.' Progressive lawmakers, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are rallying to support Bowman, emphasizing the grassroots nature of his campaign against well-funded opponents. The primary, set for June 25, has drawn national attention, highlighting the broader debate over the influence of money in politics post-Citizens United. A conservative group has also targeted Bowman with a Times Square billboard and a $100K media spend.
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Similar markets
More than $15 million • 50%
Less than or equal to $15 million • 50%
Less than 5% • 33%
Between 5% and 10% • 33%
More than 10% • 33%
Bowman wins by a large margin • 33%
Latimer wins by a large margin • 33%
Close race • 34%
Bowman wins by 10%+ • 25%
Bowman wins by <10% • 25%
Latimer wins by <10% • 25%
Latimer wins by 10%+ • 25%
AIPAC • 33%
Major Democratic PAC • 33%
Other • 34%
Bowman wins despite AIPAC spending • 33%
Latimer wins with AIPAC spending • 33%
Neither wins • 33%
Above 40% • 33%
Between 30% and 40% • 33%
Below 30% • 34%
Significant impact • 50%
Moderate impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Higher than 2018 primary turnout • 50%
Lower or equal to 2018 primary turnout • 50%