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What will be the impact of AIPAC funding on NY-16 primary outcome?
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Democratic•New York•16th Congressional District•Jamaal Bowman•George Latimer•Westchester County•Bowman•New Rochelle•Latimer•Westchester•AIPAC•Democratic Party•Democrat Ritchie Torres•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant impact • 50%
Moderate impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Post-election analysis from major news outlets and political analysts
Story
Jamaal Bowman Faces Tough Primary Challenge from George Latimer in NY-16, Latimer Leads 48% to 31%
Jun 16, 2024, 07:50 PM
The Democratic primary for New York's 16th Congressional District has intensified as incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman faces a significant challenge from George Latimer, the Westchester County Executive. Early voting began on June 15, with Bowman casting his vote in New Rochelle. Latimer, who has been criticized for his handling of desegregation efforts in Westchester, is supported by right-wing donors, including AIPAC, and pro-Trump funding. The pro-Israel lobby has spent millions, including $14.6 million, to defeat Bowman. The primary has highlighted divisions within the Democratic Party, with Bowman targeting fellow Democrat Ritchie Torres over his support for Israel. Polls show Latimer leading with 48% to Bowman's 31%. The election will take place on June 25.
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Bowman wins despite AIPAC spending • 33%
Latimer wins with AIPAC spending • 33%
Neither wins • 33%
Significantly influence • 50%
Not significantly influence • 50%
Shift towards pro-Israel stance • 33%
Shift towards critical stance • 33%
No significant shift • 33%
AIPAC • 33%
Major Democratic PAC • 33%
Other • 34%
Jamaal Bowman endorsed by AOC • 33%
George Latimer endorsed by a major figure • 33%
No significant endorsements • 34%