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Will TikTok win its legal challenge against the U.S. divestment law by the end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official court rulings and legal documents
Story
TikTok Challenges U.S. Divestment Law, Cites China Ties and Free Speech for 170 Million Americans
Aug 16, 2024, 02:00 AM
TikTok has filed a court appeal challenging a U.S. law that mandates its divestment, arguing that the Department of Justice has misstated its ties to China. In its reply brief, TikTok contends that the law violates the First Amendment and infringes on the free speech rights of 170 million Americans. The company compares its situation to that of foreign-owned American news outlets, asserting that a nationwide ban would represent the most sweeping speech restriction in U.S. history. TikTok maintains that a sale is impractical for legal and practical reasons.
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Supreme Court blocks order • 25%
Supreme Court upholds order • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 50%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 50%
Law Upheld • 33%
Law Struck Down • 33%
Compromise Reached • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%