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Will there be significant impact on civilian population in southern Lebanon by end of 2024?
2
Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Muhammad Mustafa Ayoub•Hezbollah•Rocket and Missile Department•Israeli Air Force•IAF•Lebanon•Ayoub•Nasser Unit•Salaa•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased displacement • 33%
Increased casualties • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Reports from humanitarian organizations like Red Cross, UNHCR
Story
IDF Confirms Elimination of Senior Hezbollah Commander Muhammad Mustafa Ayoub in Southern Lebanon Airstrike
Jun 17, 2024, 03:17 PM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have confirmed the elimination of Muhammad Mustafa Ayoub, a senior commander in Hezbollah's Rocket and Missile Department, in an airstrike by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in southern Lebanon. Ayoub, a key operative in the Nasser Unit, was targeted in the village of Salaa. The IDF stated that Ayoub was involved in promoting terror attacks against Israeli civilians and communities. Ayoub was also a commander of the artillery unit of the Al-Nasser Brigades. The strike also resulted in the death of one of Ayoub's companions.
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Similar markets
Significant civilian displacement • 25%
Moderate civilian displacement • 25%
Minimal civilian displacement • 25%
No significant impact on civilians • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant impact • 33%
Moderate impact (limited casualties and damage) • 33%
Severe impact (high casualties and widespread damage) • 33%
0 • 25%
1-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
More than 10 • 25%
Significant displacement • 25%
Increase in casualties • 25%
Humanitarian aid required • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
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50-100 casualties • 25%
More than 100 casualties • 25%
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100-500 • 25%
501-1000 • 25%
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100-499 • 25%
500-999 • 25%
1000 or more • 25%
Increased internal political instability • 25%
Strengthening of Hezbollah's influence • 25%
International diplomatic intervention • 25%
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401 or more • 25%