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Will there be a significant maritime conflict between the Philippines and China by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
News reports, official government statements
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Philippine Coast Guard Vessel Leaves Disputed South China Sea Shoal, Returns to Port
Sep 15, 2024, 05:11 AM
The Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua has left the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea after more than five months of sentinel duties. The 97-meter ship had been anchored at the contested reef as part of the Philippines' efforts to assert its maritime claims in the region. The vessel's departure was confirmed by the national maritime council on Sunday. AIS shows that the BRP Teresa Magbanua has returned to port, marking a significant development in the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No further incidents • 25%
Minor incidents • 25%
Major incidents • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Naval encounter • 25%
Airspace violation • 25%
Fishing rights dispute • 25%
Other • 25%