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Will the U.S. reduce its nuclear warheads to below 3,500 by the end of 2024?
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United States•Berlin Wall•NPT•National Nuclear Security Agency•NNSA•Department of Energy•Biden•Federation of American Scientists•FAS
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) or the Department of Energy
Story
U.S. Declassifies Nuclear Stockpile Data, Reveals 3,748 Warheads, 88% Reduction
Jul 20, 2024, 03:45 PM
The United States has declassified data on its nuclear weapons stockpile, revealing that as of September 2023, the U.S. had 3,748 nuclear warheads. This number represents an 88% reduction from the peak stockpile of 31,255 warheads at the end of fiscal year 1967, and an 83% decrease from the 22,217 warheads present when the Berlin Wall fell in late 1989. The declassification, which covers data from September 2021 through September 2023, is part of the U.S. commitment to transparency and leadership under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) and the Department of Energy have been involved in this effort, with the Biden administration receiving praise for restoring nuclear transparency. The tally includes both active and inactive warheads. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has provided analysis on this development.
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Less than 3,500 • 25%
3,500 to 3,748 • 25%
3,749 to 4,000 • 25%
More than 4,000 • 25%
United States • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Expand significantly • 25%
Expand moderately • 25%
No expansion • 25%
Reduce nuclear force • 25%