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Will Russia lower its nuclear threshold further by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Russian government or international diplomatic reports
Story
Russia Claims First Strike by U.S.-Made Missiles, Putin Threatens Nuclear Response
Nov 19, 2024, 01:11 PM
Russia has claimed that it shot down U.S.-made long-range missiles within its borders, following an attack by Ukraine. The Russian government has signaled its readiness to respond with nuclear weapons, heightening tensions in the region. This development comes as President Vladimir Putin has formally lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. According to CNBC, this marks the first strike on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied long-range weapons.
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More aggressive stance • 25%
Less aggressive stance • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Policy remains unclear • 25%
More aggressive stance • 25%
Maintaining current stance • 25%
Adopting a defensive stance • 25%
Other significant changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Decrease in nuclear arsenal • 25%
New deployment strategy • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal reduction in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Increased reliance on hypersonic missiles • 25%
No change in nuclear doctrine • 25%
Other changes • 25%
