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Will the US initiate military action in the Middle East by February 20, 2025 if hostages are not released?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the US government or credible reports from major news outlets confirming military action
Story
Trump Warns Hamas: Severe Consequences if Gaza Hostages Not Released by Inauguration
Dec 2, 2024, 06:58 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the Gaza hostage situation, indicating that if the hostages are not freed before he takes office on January 20th, the repercussions in the Middle East will be severe. Trump's statement, shared across multiple platforms, emphasizes the urgency of the situation, stating that there will be 'all hell to pay in the Middle East' if the hostages are not released. The warning is directed at Hamas, with Trump suggesting that failure to comply would result in significant consequences for the region and those responsible for the hostage-taking. He further warned that if the hostages are not returned by January 20th, every living Hamas member would be returned in body bags.
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Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic pressure • 25%
No action • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No action • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Other • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
New diplomatic initiative • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of Hamas • 25%
Support for Trump's stance • 25%
Calls for negotiation • 25%
