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Market
U.S. military action against Hamas by January 21, 2025, if hostages not released?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House
Story
Trump Warns of Consequences if Hamas Does Not Release Israeli Hostages by Inauguration
Dec 16, 2024, 04:58 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. During a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump emphasized that if the hostages are not returned home by his inauguration date on January 20th, there would be severe consequences. Trump's remarks suggest a potential escalation in response to the hostage situation, indicating that the U.S. might take decisive action if the situation does not resolve by the specified deadline.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No action • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Provide military aid to Israel • 25%
Issue a formal condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%