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Will the recent geomagnetic storm cause significant power grid disruptions by October 18, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from national power grid operators or major news outlets
Story
Severe Geomagnetic Storm Brings Northern Lights Across U.S. and Europe Thursday Night, NOAA Warns
Oct 11, 2024, 05:57 AM
A severe G4 geomagnetic storm hit Earth on Thursday night, causing the northern lights to be visible across a large portion of the United States and parts of Europe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a severe geomagnetic storm watch, warning that the storm could affect power grids weakened by recent hurricanes. The aurora borealis was seen as far south as Alabama, Texas, and San Antonio in the U.S., and across the UK, including London and East Anglia. The storm provided a stunning display of colors, with skies lit up in hues of magenta and green. The event was notable for its intensity and widespread visibility, offering a rare opportunity for many to witness the northern lights.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Power grid failures • 25%
Communication disruptions • 25%
Satellite malfunctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Northern U.S. • 25%
Midwestern U.S. • 25%
UK • 25%
Other • 25%
G1 (Minor) • 25%
G2 (Moderate) • 25%
G3 (Strong) • 25%
G4 or higher (Severe) • 25%
Minor disruptions • 25%
Moderate disruptions • 25%
Severe disruptions • 25%
No disruptions • 25%
North America • 25%
Europe • 25%
Asia • 25%
Other • 25%