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Market
Will the proposed 48-hour ceasefire result in the release of hostages and prisoners?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from credible news agencies or official statements from involved parties confirming the exchange
Story
Egypt Proposes 48-Hour Gaza Ceasefire for Hostage-Prisoner Exchange and Aid Delivery
Oct 27, 2024, 05:09 PM
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has proposed a 48-hour ceasefire in Gaza, during which four Israeli hostages would be released in exchange for some Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian aid would be allowed into Gaza. Following the ceasefire, a ten-day negotiation period would aim to establish a lasting ceasefire and address broader issues. Israel has expressed openness to discussing the proposal, while Hamas has reportedly rejected it.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire and hostage release accepted by both sides • 25%
Ceasefire accepted but no hostage release • 25%
Hostage release but no ceasefire • 25%
Neither ceasefire nor hostage release • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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