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Will the Lebanese Army regain control of evacuated border posts by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Lebanese Army and reputable news sources like Reuters or BBC
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Lebanese Army Evacuates Border Posts in Early Evening Amid Rising Tensions
Sep 30, 2024, 06:21 PM
The Lebanese Army has evacuated its positions in Abu Shanan, near Qatmoun in the Rmeish region, to redeploy its forces in several border areas. This move comes amid heightened tensions and increased artillery attacks, particularly in the Khiyam Plains. The evacuation, requested through UNIFIL forces, is in preparation for a potential Israeli ground attack on Lebanon. The evacuation began in the early evening hours. The border area is being turned into a no man's land to prevent an IDF invasion.
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Under IDF control • 25%
Under Hezbollah control • 25%
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Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
IDF takes full control • 25%
Hezbollah retains control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
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Israel • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Lebanese Government • 25%
Other • 25%
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No • 50%
Strategic Repositioning • 25%
Safety Concerns • 25%
International Pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
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