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Will UNIFIL forces intervene to prevent escalation in Lebanon by November 30, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official UNIFIL statements and reputable news sources like Al Jazeera or CNN
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Lebanese Army Evacuates Border Posts in Early Evening Amid Rising Tensions
Sep 30, 2024, 06:21 PM
The Lebanese Army has evacuated its positions in Abu Shanan, near Qatmoun in the Rmeish region, to redeploy its forces in several border areas. This move comes amid heightened tensions and increased artillery attacks, particularly in the Khiyam Plains. The evacuation, requested through UNIFIL forces, is in preparation for a potential Israeli ground attack on Lebanon. The evacuation began in the early evening hours. The border area is being turned into a no man's land to prevent an IDF invasion.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
UNIFIL withdrawn • 25%
UNIFIL remains with increased security • 25%
UNIFIL remains unchanged • 25%
UNIFIL mandate expanded • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Suspended operations • 25%
Withdrawn from Lebanon • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%