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What will be the status of the evacuated Lebanese border posts by December 31, 2024?
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Lebanese•Israel•Israeli•UNIFIL•M113 Armored Personnel Carriers•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Lebanon•Lebanese army•Hezbollah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Under IDF control • 25%
Under Hezbollah control • 25%
Under Lebanese Army control • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified news reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Lebanese Army Evacuates Border Posts by 5 Kilometers Ahead of Imminent Israeli Ground Attack
Sep 30, 2024, 06:46 PM
The Lebanese army has evacuated several border posts on the southern border with Israel in anticipation of an imminent Israeli ground attack. The evacuation, requested through UNIFIL forces, began in the early evening hours. Footage shows Lebanese military vehicles, including M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, moving away from the border by at least 5 kilometers. This strategic withdrawal is expected to facilitate the Israeli Defense Forces' (IDF) ground operations in Lebanon. The Lebanese army's withdrawal will allow the IDF to engage directly with Hezbollah members in the region. Heavy artillery fire has been reported in the border town as the IDF moves in.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal delayed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Fully upheld • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Completely broken • 25%
Renegotiated • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Hezbollah • 33%
Israeli forces • 33%
Lebanese government forces • 33%
Approved • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Modified • 25%
Pending • 25%
Strategic Repositioning • 25%
Safety Concerns • 25%
International Pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Continued skirmishes without major escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%