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Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire lead to a lasting peace agreement?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes, within 2025 • 25%
Yes, after 2025 • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli and Hamas authorities, international news reports
Story
Trump Announces Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: 33 Hostages to Be Released in Exchange for 1,000 Prisoners
Jan 15, 2025, 05:17 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that includes the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza. President-elect Donald Trump announced the agreement on his Truth Social platform, stating, "We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly." The breakthrough comes after 15 months of war in Gaza and just days before Trump's inauguration. Trump had earlier warned that "all hell will break out" if Hamas did not release the hostages before he took office. Under the terms of the deal, Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for Israel releasing approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire is expected to last six weeks. Multiple sources, including US officials, have confirmed the agreement, and celebrations were reported in Gaza following the announcement.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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