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Market
Will SpaceX complete the initial design phase of the ISS Deorbit Vehicle by Dec 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from NASA or SpaceX
Story
NASA Awards $843M Contract to SpaceX for ISS Deorbit Vehicle After 2030
Jul 17, 2024, 05:51 PM
NASA has awarded a contract valued at $843,256,689.85 to SpaceX for the development of the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle. This spacecraft will be used to deorbit the International Space Station around or after 2030. The new vehicle will feature six times more propellant and four times the power of the current Dragon spacecraft, ensuring a precise and controlled deorbit. The design and development of the vehicle are based on the Dragon heritage. NASA and SpaceX are currently discussing the details of this contract. SpaceX has shared a first look at their spacecraft.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Completion of design phase • 25%
First successful test flight • 25%
Full operational readiness • 25%
None of the above by end of 2026 • 25%
Contract signing • 25%
Design completion • 25%
Prototype ready • 25%
Testing phase • 25%
Successful Deployment • 25%
Delayed Deployment • 25%
Canceled • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Technical design issues • 25%
Funding and budget constraints • 25%
Regulatory and safety approvals • 25%
Supply chain and manufacturing delays • 25%