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Will protests lead to changes in Venezuelan election laws by January 2026?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Venezuelan government or credible international news reports
Story
Maduro Sworn In for Third Term Until 2031 Amid Opposition Claims of Fraud
Jan 10, 2025, 02:54 PM
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013, was sworn in for a third term, extending his presidency until 2031. The inauguration ceremony took place at the National Assembly in Caracas, where Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez bestowed the presidential sash. Maduro proceeded with the ceremony despite credible evidence of electoral fraud and allegations from the opposition that their candidate, Edmundo González, won the June 28, 2024, election. The opposition accuses Maduro of refusing to release the official vote tallies, known as actas. The inauguration occurred amid widespread protests and international criticism, including demonstrations on the eve of the ceremony. In his speech, Maduro promised that his new term would usher in a period of peace, equality, and democracy.
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Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Dialogue with opposition • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
Increased repression • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%