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What will be the trend of protests against Maduro regime by June 2025?
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Canada•Edmundo González Urrutia•Venezuela•Venezuelan•Canadian•Affairs•Mélanie Joly•Donald Trump•González Urrutia•Trump•Truth Social•Maria Corina Machado•Nicolás Maduro•Venezuelans•Maduro
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Reports from international human rights organizations and news outlets
Story
Canada and Trump Recognize Edmundo González as Venezuela's President-elect Amid Protests and Detention of Opposition Leader
Jan 9, 2025, 11:09 PM
Canada has officially recognized Edmundo González Urrutia as the President-elect of Venezuela, reaffirming its support for the Venezuelan opposition. The Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, confirmed the recognition following Venezuela's presidential elections held on July 28. Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump also recognized González Urrutia as Venezuela's President-elect, emphasizing that the Venezuelan-American community overwhelmingly supports a free Venezuela. Trump's statements on Truth Social came after the brief detention and subsequent release of opposition leader and democracy activist Maria Corina Machado on January 9, 2025, by forces loyal to President Nicolás Maduro. Trump warned that these "freedom fighters should not be harmed and must stay safe and alive", expressing support for the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans demonstrating against the Maduro regime. Edmundo González Urrutia expressed gratitude to Trump for his support, acknowledging the U.S. backing for their cause.
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Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Dialogue with opposition • 25%
Increased repression • 25%
Major confrontations and violence • 25%
Minor confrontations reported • 25%
Cancelled or postponed • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
Edmundo González becomes president • 25%