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Will Marine Le Pen become the Prime Minister of France by July 31, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the French government
Story
France Holds Snap Legislative Elections as Marine Le Pen's Far Right Poised for Historic Gains
Jul 7, 2024, 12:15 AM
France is holding the second round of its snap legislative parliamentary elections today, with the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, poised to make significant gains. This election, taking place on Sunday, could potentially see the far-right forming a government for the first time in French history, a development compared to the Vichy government era (1940-1944). The elections are seen as pivotal, with the possibility of either a historic victory for the far-right or a hung parliament leading to political deadlock. Opinion polls suggest that while the RN is expected to win the most votes, it may fall short of securing a majority.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Disqualified from 2027 race • 25%
Steps down as RN leader • 25%
Continues as RN leader • 25%
Other • 25%
Still leader of National Rally • 25%
Resigned or removed as leader • 25%
New political role • 25%
Retired from politics • 25%
Yes • 33%
No • 33%
Attempts but fails • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%