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Market
Will Marine Le Pen become Prime Minister?
5
France•Emmanuel Macron•National Rally•RN•EU•National Assembly•Marine Le Pen•Popular Front•Macron•Renaissance
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the French government
Story
France Holds Snap Election as Far-Right Leads with 34% Amid Record Turnout
Jun 30, 2024, 06:00 PM
France is heading to the polls for a snap parliamentary election called by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 following the far-right National Rally (RN)’s win in the EU elections. Voters will cast their ballots on June 30 in the first of two possible rounds to elect 577 members of the National Assembly. The latest opinion polls suggest that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally is leading with 34% of the vote, followed by the left-wing Popular Front at 28.5%, and Macron's Renaissance party at 22.5%. The National Rally and its allies are on track to become the biggest formation in the National Assembly, but they would need 289 lawmakers to have an absolute majority. Voter turnout is at its highest level this century, with record numbers. Exit polls indicate that the National Rally is not on track to win a majority, suggesting a possible hung parliament.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Still leader of National Rally • 25%
Resigned or removed as leader • 25%
New political role • 25%
Retired from politics • 25%
Disqualified from 2027 race • 25%
Steps down as RN leader • 25%
Continues as RN leader • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 33%
No • 33%
Attempts but fails • 33%