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Market
What will be Marine Le Pen's political status by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Still leader of National Rally • 25%
Resigned or removed as leader • 25%
New political role • 25%
Retired from politics • 25%
Official announcements from the National Rally party or credible news sources
Story
French Prosecutors Investigate Marine Le Pen Over Fraud and Illegal 2022 Campaign Financing
Jul 9, 2024, 11:08 AM
French prosecutors have launched an investigation into Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, over allegations of illegal financing during her 2022 presidential campaign. The Paris prosecutor's office opened the probe on July 2, 2024, focusing on suspicions that Le Pen's party misappropriated taxpayer funds from the European Parliament to support her campaign. The investigation also includes allegations of fraud, embezzlement, and forgery. This investigation comes shortly after Le Pen's party suffered a surprising defeat in recent elections, where the Socialists and Communists emerged victorious.
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Disqualified from 2027 race • 25%
Steps down as RN leader • 25%
Continues as RN leader • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains RN Leader • 25%
Steps Down as RN Leader • 25%
Barred from Running in 2027 • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned from holding public office • 25%
Allowed to run for president in 2027 • 25%
Receives a fine but no ban • 25%
No penalties • 25%
Remains leader • 25%
Resigns voluntarily • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
Suspended temporarily • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Steps down temporarily • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Join coalition with Bayrou • 25%
Remain in opposition • 25%
Form new political alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Eligible to run • 25%
Ineligible due to conviction • 25%
Ineligible due to other legal issues • 25%
Eligibility undecided • 25%
