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Will Iran's Revolutionary Guards maintain control over 50% of oil exports by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders
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Iran's Revolutionary Guards Control 50% of Oil Exports Amid Western Sanctions
Dec 18, 2024, 07:36 AM
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of Iran's oil exports, according to Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders. This increase in control, from about 20% three years ago, has been facilitated through a shadow fleet of tankers, logistics, and front companies that primarily sell the oil to China. The revenue from these exports is a major source of income for Tehran and is used to fund the Guards' proxies across the Middle East. Despite stringent Western sanctions reimposed by the U.S. in 2018, Iran continues to generate over $50 billion annually from oil exports.
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China • 25%
India • 25%
European Union • 25%
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Minor influence • 25%
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Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
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Increased exports to new markets • 25%
Reduced exports due to sanctions • 25%
Continued focus on current markets • 25%
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Hezbollah • 25%
Houthis • 25%
Shiite militias in Iraq • 25%
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