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Will Iran's oil export revenue exceed $60 billion in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official Iranian government revenue reports or major financial news outlets
Story
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Control 50% of Oil Exports Amid Western Sanctions
Dec 18, 2024, 07:36 AM
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of Iran's oil exports, according to Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders. This increase in control, from about 20% three years ago, has been facilitated through a shadow fleet of tankers, logistics, and front companies that primarily sell the oil to China. The revenue from these exports is a major source of income for Tehran and is used to fund the Guards' proxies across the Middle East. Despite stringent Western sanctions reimposed by the U.S. in 2018, Iran continues to generate over $50 billion annually from oil exports.
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Similar markets
Sold to China • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sold to another country • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
3.0 to 3.5 million barrels per day • 25%
Above 4 million barrels per day • 25%
Below 3 million barrels per day • 25%
3.5 to 4.0 million barrels per day • 25%
China remains the largest buyer • 25%
India becomes the largest buyer • 25%
Other countries become major buyers • 25%
European countries become major buyers • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
