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How will the Revolutionary Guards' share of Iran's oil exports change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase above 50% • 25%
Decrease below 50% • 25%
Remain at 50% • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders
Story
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Control 50% of Oil Exports Amid Western Sanctions
Dec 18, 2024, 07:36 AM
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of Iran's oil exports, according to Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders. This increase in control, from about 20% three years ago, has been facilitated through a shadow fleet of tankers, logistics, and front companies that primarily sell the oil to China. The revenue from these exports is a major source of income for Tehran and is used to fund the Guards' proxies across the Middle East. Despite stringent Western sanctions reimposed by the U.S. in 2018, Iran continues to generate over $50 billion annually from oil exports.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
China • 25%
India • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Major influence • 25%
Moderate influence • 25%
Minor influence • 25%
No influence • 25%
Increased exports to new markets • 25%
Reduced exports due to sanctions • 25%
Continued focus on current markets • 25%
Other • 25%
Oil Revenue • 25%
International Loans • 25%
Increased Taxes • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
GDP growth rate increases by 1% or more • 25%
GDP growth rate increases by less than 1% • 25%
GDP growth rate remains stable • 25%
GDP growth rate decreases • 25%