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Will Belarusian and Wagner forces violate Ukrainian border by October 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official statements from Ukrainian government
Story
Ukraine Warns Belarus Over 1,100 Troops and Wagner Buildup at Border
Aug 25, 2024, 06:31 PM
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has issued a warning to Belarus over the concentration of troops and military equipment near Ukraine's northern border. According to Ukrainian intelligence, about 1,100 Belarusian armed forces, including special operations units and Wagner Group mercenaries, are amassing under the guise of military exercises in the Gomel region, up to 50 kilometers from the border. The buildup includes tanks, artillery, air defense systems, and engineering equipment. Ukraine demands the immediate withdrawal of these forces, cautioning Belarus against making 'tragic mistakes' under Moscow's influence. Kyiv emphasizes its right to self-defense and threatens potential retaliation if the border is violated.
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Troops remain without conflict • 25%
Troops withdraw without conflict • 25%
Troops engage in conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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