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What will be the outcome of Belarusian and Wagner forces buildup near Ukrainian border by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Forces remain without conflict • 25%
Forces withdraw without conflict • 25%
Minor skirmishes occur • 25%
Full-scale conflict erupts • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official statements from Ukrainian and Belarusian governments
Story
Ukraine Warns Belarus Over 1,100 Troops and Wagner Buildup at Border
Aug 25, 2024, 06:31 PM
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has issued a warning to Belarus over the concentration of troops and military equipment near Ukraine's northern border. According to Ukrainian intelligence, about 1,100 Belarusian armed forces, including special operations units and Wagner Group mercenaries, are amassing under the guise of military exercises in the Gomel region, up to 50 kilometers from the border. The buildup includes tanks, artillery, air defense systems, and engineering equipment. Ukraine demands the immediate withdrawal of these forces, cautioning Belarus against making 'tragic mistakes' under Moscow's influence. Kyiv emphasizes its right to self-defense and threatens potential retaliation if the border is violated.
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Similar markets
Troops remain without conflict • 25%
Troops withdraw without conflict • 25%
Troops engage in conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sanctions by the EU • 25%
Sanctions by the US • 25%
Sanctions by both EU and US • 25%
No significant sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Direct military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Continued standoff without escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Interception of another drone • 25%
Ground troop movement • 25%
Airstrike on Russian targets • 25%
Naval engagement • 25%
Increased support to Belarus • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
0-500 • 25%
501-1000 • 25%
1001-2000 • 25%
2001 or more • 25%