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Will Abdullah Ocalan be released from prison by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Turkish government or credible news sources
Story
PKK Leader Abdullah Ocalan Offers Support for Disarmament Talks with Turkey's Bahçeli and Erdoğan to End 40-Year Conflict
Dec 29, 2024, 09:37 AM
Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), has expressed a willingness to engage in talks with the Turkish government regarding disarmament. In a recent message, Ocalan stated that he possesses the competence and determination to contribute positively to a new paradigm empowered by Turkish leaders Devlet Bahçeli and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He emphasized the historical responsibility to strengthen Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood as part of this initiative. Ocalan's message marks a potential step toward ending a conflict that has persisted for 40 years, as he extends his support for fostering fraternity between Kurds and Turks.
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Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Öcalan's influence remains the same • 25%
Öcalan gains political influence • 25%
Öcalan's influence decreases • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other development • 25%