Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Abdullah Ocalan's involvement in reconciliation efforts by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Turkish government or PKK, and major news reports
Story
Turkey's Pro-Kurdish DEM Party Meets Jailed PKK Leader Abdullah Ocalan for First Time in 10 Years, Signals Possible End to Insurgency
Dec 29, 2024, 03:05 AM
Turkey has permitted lawmakers from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Regions Party (DEM) to meet with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), marking the first such visit in nearly a decade. The Justice Ministry approved the meeting, which took place on İmralı Island, as part of ongoing efforts toward Kurdish reconciliation. During the meeting, Ocalan reportedly expressed his willingness to contribute positively to a new political paradigm in Turkey, emphasizing the importance of strengthening Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood. His remarks included a suggestion that he might be ready to call for an end to the insurgency, which has lasted for over 40 years and resulted in more than 40,000 deaths. The visit is seen as a pivotal moment in Turkey's approach to addressing long-standing ethnic tensions and could signal a shift in the government's strategy regarding the Kurdish issue.
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement reached • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Öcalan's influence decreases • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Öcalan's influence remains the same • 25%
Öcalan gains political influence • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement to hold further talks • 25%
Proposal for policy changes • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other development • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Negotiation process initiated • 25%
End of insurgency announced • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Positive reconciliation steps announced • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Visit cancelled • 25%
Visit postponed • 25%
Visit completed with public statement • 25%
Visit completed without public statement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ocalan opposes peace talks • 25%
Ocalan supports peace talks • 25%
No significant statement • 25%