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Will a ten-day negotiation for a comprehensive ceasefire begin by December 10, 2024?
2
Gaza•Israeli•Palestinian•Cairo•Israel•Hamas•Mossad•David Barnea•Doha•Qatar•CIA•Bill Burns•Qatari•Egypt
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Israeli, Palestinian, and Egyptian officials, verified by international news agencies
Story
El-Sisi Proposes 48-Hour Gaza Ceasefire to Swap Four Israeli Hostages for Palestinian Prisoners
Oct 27, 2024, 06:28 PM
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has proposed a 48-hour ceasefire in Gaza, involving the exchange of four Israeli hostages for some Palestinian prisoners and allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza. The proposal, announced during a press conference in Cairo, includes a subsequent ten-day period of negotiations aimed at establishing a comprehensive ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Mossad Director David Barnea is reported to be traveling to Doha, Qatar, for discussions, while CIA Director Bill Burns is meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani to discuss hostage negotiations and a potential ceasefire deal. Despite the proposal, Hamas has reportedly rejected the offer. The initiative represents an effort by Egypt and other international mediators to de-escalate the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Long-term peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement signed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Immediate cease-fire • 25%
Conditional cease-fire • 25%
No cease-fire • 25%
Other terms • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
A lasting ceasefire agreement is reached • 25%
Negotiations extend beyond ten days without agreement • 25%
Negotiations break down without any agreement • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
