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What will be the outcome of the U.S.-mediated ceasefire negotiations by December 31, 2024?
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Israel•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Israeli•Amos Hochstein•Washington Mike Herzog•Benjamin Netanyahu•Lebanese•Litani River•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement signed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Official announcements from the involved parties or major international news outlets
Story
Israel and Lebanon Close to U.S.-Mediated Ceasefire to End Conflict with Hezbollah
Nov 24, 2024, 09:45 PM
Israel and Lebanon are reportedly on the verge of reaching a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to multiple sources, including Israeli media outlets and U.S. officials, Israel has given the green light to advance the U.S.-proposed ceasefire deal, pending cabinet approval. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, who is mediating between the two sides, communicated via Israeli Ambassador to Washington Mike Herzog that he would withdraw from mediation if Israel did not respond positively to the ceasefire proposal within days. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held critical security consultations with top defense officials regarding the potential agreement. Israel has reportedly warned Lebanon that if no agreement is reached, it will attack Lebanese targets. The proposed deal includes a 60-day transition period, during which Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah would move heavy weapons north of the Litani River. The agreement reportedly allows Israel to continue military operations along the Lebanon-Syria border. Israel has received assurances from the United States regarding freedom of action in Lebanon should the agreement be violated. While some issues remain unresolved and some sources deny that Israel has approved the agreement, both sides appear to be moving towards finalizing the ceasefire to end the conflict.
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Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Long-term peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
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Accepted • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
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Ceasefire and exchange executed • 25%
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Only exchange executed • 25%
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Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Talks ongoing without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreed without new conditions • 25%
Ceasefire agreed with new conditions • 25%
No ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
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Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
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Complete ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Talks collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage deal • 25%
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Other • 25%
Immediate cease-fire • 25%
Conditional cease-fire • 25%
No cease-fire • 25%
Other terms • 25%