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Who will be identified as responsible for Assad's poisoning by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Internal Russian entity • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Official reports from Russian authorities or credible international news sources
Story
Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Reportedly Poisoned in Moscow, Investigation Underway
Jan 2, 2025, 09:00 AM
Bashar al-Assad, the ousted Syrian president, was reportedly the target of a poisoning attempt in Moscow, where he has been under the protection of Russian President Vladimir Putin since December 8. According to reports from the Russian Telegram channel General SVR, which is allegedly run by a former top Russian spy, Assad, 59, fell ill on Sunday, experiencing severe coughing and difficulty breathing. Medical assistance was sought, and doctors attended to him at his residence in Moscow. The channel claims that traces of a poisonous substance were found in Assad's system, and his condition stabilized by Monday. The incident has not been officially confirmed by Russian authorities, but an investigation is reportedly underway to determine how Assad was exposed to the poison.
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Unknown/Other • 25%
Russian government • 25%
Syrian opposition • 25%
No responsible party identified • 25%
Confirmed assassination attempt • 25%
Inconclusive/No finding • 25%
Natural illness • 25%
Accidental poisoning • 25%
No official response • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Radioactive Substance • 25%
Chemical Poison • 25%
Other/Unknown • 25%
Nerve Agent • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unknown • 25%
No change • 25%
Significantly worsened • 25%
