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What will be the outcome of Assad's stay in Moscow by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains in Moscow • 25%
Relocates to another country • 25%
Returns to Syria • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports regarding Assad's status
Story
Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Reportedly Poisoned in Moscow, Investigation Underway
Jan 2, 2025, 09:00 AM
Bashar al-Assad, the ousted Syrian president, was reportedly the target of a poisoning attempt in Moscow, where he has been under the protection of Russian President Vladimir Putin since December 8. According to reports from the Russian Telegram channel General SVR, which is allegedly run by a former top Russian spy, Assad, 59, fell ill on Sunday, experiencing severe coughing and difficulty breathing. Medical assistance was sought, and doctors attended to him at his residence in Moscow. The channel claims that traces of a poisonous substance were found in Assad's system, and his condition stabilized by Monday. The incident has not been officially confirmed by Russian authorities, but an investigation is reportedly underway to determine how Assad was exposed to the poison.
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No significant outcome • 25%
Military agreement • 25%
Economic agreement • 25%
Diplomatic discussions • 25%
New regime established • 25%
Assad returns to power • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Increased security protection • 25%
No change • 25%
Relocation within Russia • 25%
Exile to another country • 25%
Exile negotiations • 25%
Political asylum • 25%
Medical treatment • 25%
Other • 25%
