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Market
Who will be deemed the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election debates?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Donald Trump • 33%
Kamala Harris • 33%
Other • 34%
Major news outlets and debate polls (e.g., CNN, Fox News, New York Times)
Story
Nate Silver's Forecast Shows Trump Leading Harris with 64% Probability, Winning Swing States
Sep 8, 2024, 04:04 PM
Nate Silver's latest forecast shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election with a 64% probability of winning compared to Harris's 36%. The forecast indicates Trump winning every swing state, with a significant 24-point lead in Pennsylvania. This comes as Harris faces increased pressure to perform well in the upcoming debate, given her limited media appearances. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena poll and other sources confirm Trump's lead, highlighting a shift in voter sentiment. Trump's probability of winning in the Electoral College is at 61.5%, while Harris stands at 38.3%. Another poll with over 7,200 voters shows Trump leading Harris 98% to 2%. Trump's lead in betting market odds has also widened to 8 points.
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