Nate Silver's Forecast Shows Trump Leading Harris with 64% Probability, Winning Swing States

Sep 8, 2024, 04:04 PM

Nate Silver's latest forecast shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election with a 64% probability of winning compared to Harris's 36%. The forecast indicates Trump winning every swing state, with a significant 24-point lead in Pennsylvania. This comes as Harris faces increased pressure to perform well in the upcoming debate, given her limited media appearances. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena poll and other sources confirm Trump's lead, highlighting a shift in voter sentiment. Trump's probability of winning in the Electoral College is at 61.5%, while Harris stands at 38.3%. Another poll with over 7,200 voters shows Trump leading Harris 98% to 2%. Trump's lead in betting market odds has also widened to 8 points.