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Who will be appointed to key diplomatic positions related to Iran policy by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Richard Grenell • 25%
Another former Trump administration official • 25%
A new appointee with no prior Trump administration ties • 25%
No new key appointments • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or State Department, reported by major news outlets
Story
Trump Signals Possible War with Iran in Time Interview, Considers Richard Grenell as Special Envoy
Dec 12, 2024, 10:30 PM
In a recent interview with Time magazine, President-elect Donald Trump indicated that he is not ruling out the possibility of war with Iran, stating that 'anything can happen.' This statement comes as Trump considers appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, as a special envoy for Iran. Trump's approach towards Iran remains tense, echoing the heightened tensions from his first term, particularly following the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. The incoming administration's national security adviser has also committed to reinstating the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, despite signals from Tehran indicating a desire to de-escalate tensions. Trump's comments and potential appointments suggest a continuation of a hardline stance towards Iran in his upcoming term.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mixture of both • 25%
Others • 25%
Moderate Republicans • 25%
Loyalists to Trump • 25%
Neutral response • 25%
Positive response • 25%
Negative response • 25%
No official response • 25%
France • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
John Bolton • 25%
Other • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Mike Pompeo • 25%
US and Iran directly • 25%
US, Iran, and EU • 25%
US, Iran, and Russia • 25%
Multilateral talks (including China) • 25%
Other • 20%
Kristi Noem • 20%
Kash Patel • 20%
Tulsi Gabbard • 20%
Pete Hegseth • 20%
Other • 25%
Ambassador to Canada • 25%
Ambassador to the United Nations • 25%
Ambassador to China • 25%