Loading...
Market
Who will be the main actors in a US-Iran diplomatic resolution by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
US and Iran directly • 25%
US, Iran, and EU • 25%
US, Iran, and Russia • 25%
Multilateral talks (including China) • 25%
Reports from diplomatic meetings or agreements covered by major news agencies
Story
Biden Discussed Potential Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Before January 20, No Decision Made
Jan 2, 2025, 08:30 PM
President Joe Biden discussed potential military options for striking Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran advances toward a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to Axios, citing three sources. The discussions took place in a meeting about a month ago, led by White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The meeting was part of 'prudent scenario planning' and did not result in any immediate decision for a strike. Sullivan presented various options and scenarios, but Biden did not authorize any military action. The discussions were not prompted by new intelligence, and there are currently no active discussions within the White House about military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. Some of Biden's top aides believe that the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their conflict with Israel provide both a justification and an opportunity for a strike. However, Sullivan did not make any recommendations to Biden, focusing instead on scenario planning.
View original story
Similar markets
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Military Conflict • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Agreement Reached • 25%
Talks Postponed • 25%
Talks Canceled • 25%
France • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%