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Which country will be first to escalate involvement in the Ukraine-Russia conflict by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Credible news sources reporting on military or diplomatic involvement
Story
Putin Warns NATO of Direct War if Ukraine Uses Storm Shadow Missiles After Biden's Approval
Nov 17, 2024, 09:17 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning regarding the potential consequences of Ukraine using Western-supplied long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. He stated that such actions would be interpreted as NATO's direct involvement in the conflict. This warning comes in light of recent developments, including U.S. President Joe Biden's approval for Ukraine to utilize these missiles. Putin emphasized that if NATO countries permit Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, it would fundamentally alter the nature of the conflict, effectively placing NATO at war with Russia. He further cautioned that Russia would respond by arming adversaries of NATO countries. The rhetoric marks a significant escalation in tensions as the conflict continues to evolve, with implications for international relations and military strategy in the region.
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Russia and Ukraine only • 25%
Russia, Ukraine, and one NATO country • 25%
Russia, Ukraine, and multiple NATO countries • 25%
Other countries involved • 25%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
NATO declares war on Russia • 25%
US declares war on Russia • 25%
European country declares war on Russia • 25%
No major escalation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased involvement • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mediation leading to peace talks • 25%
Aerial attacks • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Poland • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
US Increases Involvement • 25%
EU Increases Involvement • 25%
China Takes a More Active Role • 25%
Other • 25%