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What will be the next major escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
NATO declares war on Russia • 25%
US declares war on Russia • 25%
European country declares war on Russia • 25%
No major escalation • 25%
Official statements from NATO, the US, or Russian government; major news outlets like BBC, CNN, Reuters
Story
Putin Warns NATO, US, and Europe of Direct War Over Ukraine Missile Strikes
Sep 12, 2024, 06:33 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning that NATO and the United States would be considered at war with Russia if they permit Ukraine to conduct long-range missile strikes into Russian territory. Putin emphasized that such actions would escalate the ongoing conflict with Ukraine into a direct war involving NATO countries. He referred to this potential escalation as "war" and included European countries in his warning. This statement highlights the growing tensions and potential for a broader conflict involving nuclear powers.
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Aerial attacks • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Major Russian offensive • 25%
Stalemate with minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire or peace talks • 25%
Increased Russian troop presence • 25%
Introduction of new foreign troops • 25%
Use of advanced weaponry • 25%
No major escalation • 25%
Another ATACMS strike by Ukraine • 25%
Russian nuclear weapon test • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other significant military action • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
UN Intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Chechnya • 25%
Donbas • 25%
Crimea • 25%
Other • 25%
Donbas • 25%
Crimea • 25%
Chechnya • 25%
Other • 25%
