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Which countries will support Ukraine's NATO membership by March 31, 2025?
3
Volodymyr Zelensky•NATO•Ukraine•Russia•Russian•Zelensky•Trump•Donald Trump•Foreign Ministry•Budapest Memorandum•Brussels•Kyiv•France•UK•Germany•Hungary
Resolution / Starting Odds
France and UK only • 25%
US joins support • 25%
Germany joins support • 25%
All three join support • 25%
Official statements from NATO countries or major international news agencies
Story
Zelensky Seeks NATO Invite, Open to Cease-Fire; Ukraine Rejects Alternatives After Budapest Failure
Dec 3, 2024, 06:52 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has intensified calls for a formal invitation to join NATO, stating that full membership is the only real guarantee for Ukraine's security. He indicated willingness to consider a cease-fire with Russia if Ukraine receives a NATO invite, even if some occupied territories remain under Russian control temporarily. Zelensky emphasized that "there will be no surrender from Ukraine and Trump knows it," highlighting the urgency following Donald Trump's election victory. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry officially rejected any alternatives to full NATO membership, recalling the failure of past security assurances like the Budapest Memorandum. Despite Ukraine's push, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels are expected to sidestep Kyiv's request for a quick invite, with member nations divided—France and the UK support the invitation, while the U.S., Germany, and Hungary oppose it. Zelensky insists that an invitation to join the alliance is necessary for Ukraine's survival and the only true deterrent against Russian aggression.
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Similar markets
Minority support • 25%
Majority support with consensus • 25%
Majority support but no consensus • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
United States • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership application rejected • 25%
No application • 25%
Membership application pending • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Full Member • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Pending • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
No progress • 25%
Other status • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%