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Market
Which countries will remain as guarantors in the cease-fire agreement by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
All three remain guarantors • 33%
Only Qatar and Egypt remain • 33%
Only the United States remains • 34%
Official statements from the governments involved or credible news sources
Story
Israel and Hamas Near Cease-Fire and Prisoner Swap Agreement, 126 Days Phased Plan for 33 Captives
Jan 12, 2025, 06:25 AM
Israeli media reports indicate that Israel and Hamas are nearing a cease-fire and prisoner swap agreement, with approximately 90% of the details finalized. The proposed deal includes a phased approach over 126 days, involving the gradual release of hostages and the initiation of reconstruction efforts in Gaza. Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are acting as guarantors for the agreement. Recent reports suggest that Hamas has completed a draft of the cease-fire deal, which awaits Israel's approval. In the backdrop of these negotiations, Israel is contemplating a complete halt to aid to Gaza if the hostage deal is not finalized, with discussions currently focusing on the release of 33 captives. However, uncertainties remain regarding the status of these hostages, as Israel is still unsure how many are alive.
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