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Which countries will engage in diplomatic discussions over Greenland by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. and Denmark • 25%
U.S., Denmark, and China • 25%
U.S., Denmark, and Russia • 25%
All four countries • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of the U.S., Denmark, China, or Russia
Story
Trump Demands Greenland from Denmark for National Security, Threatens High Tariffs Over China, Russia Threats
Jan 7, 2025, 05:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has stated that the United States needs Greenland for national security purposes, suggesting that Denmark should relinquish control of the territory to protect the 'free world'. Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on Denmark if they do not agree to transfer Greenland to the U.S. He has cited the strategic value of Greenland in countering threats from China and Russia, claiming that their ships are visible around the territory. Trump also questioned Denmark's legal right to Greenland, suggesting that the population might vote for independence or to join the U.S. if given the opportunity.
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Russia • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%
Other or None • 25%
Denmark vs US • 25%
Other • 25%
Denmark vs Russia • 25%
Denmark vs China • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Encourages Greenlandic decision • 25%
Open to negotiations • 25%
Firm rejection • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Germany • 25%
Other • 25%
France • 25%
Denmark • 25%
None of these • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%